OSCARS 2010: MY CURRENT PREDICTIONS

Well we are coming to the final chapter of this year's Oscar race where two films have stood out ahead of the pack and will contest for the Best Picture Oscar. The Social Network dominated the critics awards, whilst The Kings Speech has comeback to take a clean sweep of the major guild awards.

Here are my current predictions for who I think will take home this year's Oscars. I will post my personal picks a few days before the awards are announced...I'm keeping them my secret at the moment.

Best Picture - The Kings Speech
Social Network was the main frontrunner that emerged from the Critics awards. But what Oscar history has shown is that the film that dominates the Guild awards will usually dominate the Oscars. Kings Speech took home major gongs at the PGA, DGA and SGA, and for me, that's enough to confirm that Kings Speech will be named Best Picture come Oscar Sunday.

Best Director - Tom Hooper, The Kings Speech
Most pundits are currently predicting a split in the Oscars this year: with Speech taking home Best Picture, and Network taking home Best Director. If this happens it would be similar to what happened in 1998 when Spielberg won Best Director for Saving Private Ryan, yet Shakespeare In Love won Best Picture. A split of this kind is rarely seen, and I don't think it'll be seen this year. I say this for the mere reason that Hooper won the DGA, and usually if you win the DGA, you win the Oscar. And the film wins Best Picture, too. Fincher is a more established director of the too with a more comprehensive body of work, but I think Hooper will win here.

Best Actor - Colin Firth, The Kings Speech
Firth has this one in the bag. I really can't see anyone else winning this. He has literally won every precursor award in sight: he is a nice, likeable guy, who delivers a stellar performance with a sympathetic character. Bet your house on him winning.

Best Actress - Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Portman confirmed her frontrunner status and likely win by picking up the SGA trophy. She's the clear frontrunner here but, unlike Best Actor, she does have a challenger in Annette Benning. Benning has been snubbed many times by the Academy, who could feel the need to reward her for convincing role in The Kids Are All Right. However, I think Portman will win here.

Best Supporting Actor - Christian Bale, The Fighter
As with Firth, Bale's pretty much got this one signed and sealed. He is the clear frontrunner and has been all season. The only thing that could stand in his way is if the Academy decide to give a sweep to The Kings Speech, in which case Geoffrey Rush may get in. But Rush already won in 1996 for Shine, and I doubt it'll happen here.

Best Supporting Actress - Melissa Leo, The Fighter
This is the most open of all the categories this year. Leo has emerged as the frontrunner following her SGA win, but she could still lose out here. Especially if she splits with the vote with co-star Amy Adams, in which case Hailee Steinfeld (Winters Bone) could sneak in. But safe money at the moment is Leo. The BAFTA will be a good indicator. If she wins that, she's got it sealed.

Best Original Screenplay - The Kings Speech
Don't read too much into Christopher Nolan's WGA win. Kings Speech was inelligible and wasn't in contention at the WGA. If it was, it most surely would've won. Expect it to win in this category. However, they may feel the need to validate Inception (a film which was sorely snubbed in some major categories), and may look to this category to do it. But I think they love Kings Speech too much to do it.

Best Adapted Screenplay - The Social Network
Social Network won't win Best Picture. It MAY win Best Director. What it definitely will win is Best Adapted Screenplay, and the Academy will definitely look to reward it here. I don't see too much of a challenge coming from the other contenders.

So those are the major categories. I will give you my full predictions on all the categories a few days before the Oscars, but thats how I see the main awards going down. The Kings Speech to take home 4 big ones with Picture, Director, Actor and Original Screenplay. The Fighter will pick up Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress, Black Swan to take Best Actress, whilst Social Network will scoop Best Adapted Screenplay.