But then The Kings Speech arrived, and with it a force that crushed all opposition in sight. Like Usain Bolt taking a leisurely walk and suddenly picking up steam to take the lead of his competitors, The Kings Speech picked up major awards at the PGA, DGA, WGA and SAG, as well as taking top honours at the BAFTAS.
Will it be crowned on Sunday? Or will the rollercoaster ride back to the early favourite?
Here's what I think is going to happen:
BEST PICTURE
WILL WIN: The Kings Speech
Alternate: The Social Network
The Kings Speech will continue its ride to capture the top prize on Sunday night. Its wins at the Guild Awards and the BAFTA's has sealed it's fate in a quite extraordinary "comeback".
BEST DIRECTOR
WILL WIN: Tom Hooper - The Kings Speech
Alternate: David Fincher - The Social Network
This was probably the hardest of the categories to pick - seriously, it could go either way, and the race is extremely close. Many pundits are going with Fincher, and they could very well be proven right: he is the respected, veteran director with many great films such as "Seven", "Fight Club" and "Benjamin Button". Why not reward him here? Well, I personally think that the Academy did not like his film as much as the critics did. The major factor for me going with Hooper is that he won the DGA, and I think only 6 times in history has the DGA and Oscar winner not matched.
I'm going with stats, and for Hooper. Though I won't be surprised at all if Fincher picks up the award as he is more respected and has more "street cred" then Hooper. This is the most interesting and exciting category of the night!
BEST ACTOR
WILL WIN: Colin Firth - The Kings Speech
Alternate: None (But if I had to pick, then James Franco for 127 Hours)
The chances of Firth winning are about the same as a new day beginning tomorrow: 100%. He's been a lock for this award seemingly even before the season started. There really is no way he won't win. Eisenberg and Franco both give compelling performances as well, but its just not their year.
BEST ACTRESS
WILL WIN: Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Alternate: Annette Benning - The Kids Are All Right
Portman, like Firth, is locked for this. But there is still room for an upset, even if its a slight one. The reason? Annette Benning. She's a veteran and due for a win, and could cause an upset. But I really don't see it happening. She is great in her role, but its not the performance she will be remembered for. And the film doesn't have a massive amount of support. So, Portman to win - quite comfortably.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
WILL WIN: Christian Bale - The Fighter
Alternate: Geoffrey Rush - The Kings Speech
This race is also a close one, and both give great performances. Bale is the frontrunner, but many people think that if the Academy love Kings Speech, they may shower the love all around. If that is the case, Rush could very well get the nod here. I was very tempted to say Rush, but the precursor support for Bale (and the fact that Rush already has a gold statue for "Shine") seems to point to a Bale win. This one is going to be close.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
WILL WIN: Helena Bonham Carter - The Kings Speech
Alternate: Melissa Leo - The Fighter
This is the most open of the acting categories, with three semingly plausible contenders. I can see any of Leo, Carter or Steinfeld winning. Melissa Leo has been the front-runner for most of the season, though her performance and campaign has been viewed as a little bit "off-kilter" in some quarters. Carter also won at the BAFTA's, which seems to tell me she may be rewarded here. Again, another close race here.
This has been a long, intense see-saw season where one minute we think one film is going to win, then another minute we think another. It's going to make for very interesting viewing on Sunday night, where anything can happen. If Fincher does win Director, then Social Network is in with a shout. If he doesn't, then its game, set and match for Kings Speech.
Here is my complete list of predictions in all 24 categories. I will report back after the awards and see how many I got righ (most of the non-feature film categories like animated short, etc, are a gamble):
FINAL PREDICTIONS
Picture - The Kings Speech
Director - Hooper, The Kings Speech
Actor - Firth, The Kings Speech
Actress - Portman, Black Swan
Supp Actor - Bale, The Fighter
Supp Actress - Carter, The Kings Speech
Adapted Screenplay - The Social Network
Original Screenplay - The Kings Speech
Editing - The Social Network
Cinematography - True Grit
Foreign Language Film - In A Better World
Animated Feature - Toy Story 3
Art Direction - The Kings Speech
Costume - The Kings Speech
Make up - The Wolfman
Original Score - The Kings Speech
Original Song - "We Belong Together, Toy Story 3
Sound - Inception
Sound Editing - Inception
Visual Effects - Inception
Documentary Feature - Exit Through The Gift Shop
Documentary Short - Strangers No More
Animated Short - Day and Night
Live Short - God of Love
Well, thats it. I will post my "If I Picked The Oscars" article later, and we'll see what would happen in my "ideal" world!
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